Healthcare and other public services in Barnet could be hit by staff shortages after Brexit, according to a new report.

A study by the London School of Economics (LSE) warns the NHS and council could struggle to recruit and retain staff due to a lack of EU migrant workers.

Researchers from the LSE carried out interviews with local experts and used national economic data to predict the likely impact of Brexit on five local authorities – Barnet, Southampton, Pendle, Mansfield and Ceredigion.

They found the NHS was likely to suffer the biggest impact in Barnet, where 373 doctors and nurses have left the local NHS trust since the 2016 EU referendum.

A local doctor interviewed for the report said she had “never seen the NHS in such a bad state” and any staff loss would be detrimental to running essential services.

On a national level, one in 10 doctor posts is currently vacant, while the number of applications to join the UK’s nursing register dropped by 92 per cent between May 2016 and May 2017.

The report finds social care in Barnet could suffer, as posts are particularly hard to fill due to the difficult and low-paid nature of the work.

Barnet Council could also struggle to recruit administrative staff, according to the research, and a trade union representative said roles that rely on eastern

European workers – such as waste and recycling services – could be badly hit.

The borough’s businesses – particularly retailers and restaurants – are expected to lose out as higher inflation squeezes consumer spending.

A separate LSE study calculated that the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices by June 2017.

Barnet and other areas in the south of England are expected to be more negatively affected under both soft and hard Brexit scenarios, as they have a higher proportion of jobs in the wholesale and retail trade industry.

The report concludes: “Brexit is considered likely to exacerbate already existing skills shortages in key areas in Barnet, notably in the NHS and social care, impacting local communities in a negative way.

“In addition, the expected inflation after Brexit, partly associated with increased tariffs in imports, is assumed to translate into less spending on local businesses.”

The government wants to introduce a skills-based immigration system after Brexit that means EU nationals and workers from the rest of the world are subject to the same rules.

Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to protect the rights of EU citizens living and working in the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit in a speech on September 21.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “The government is confident of reaching a deal with the EU that benefits patients, the NHS and its workforce.

“We deeply value the contribution of all EU staff working in health and social care and we are committed to ensuring they have an important role to play in the future.”

Councillor Richard Cornelius, leader of Barnet Council, said: “At this point, the council is continuing to monitor developments closely in order to understand and plan for any potential local impacts Brexit may have.

“We are pleased that the status of EU Citizens has been addressed by the government.”

The full report is available here.