HEALTH chiefs have warned a second, more serious phase of the swine flu virus could hit the borough leading to tens of thousands of people becoming infected.

Reported cases could reach more than 50,000 by winter, which has led to health services in Barnet preparing for mass immunisation and largescale antiviral clinics.

Dr Andrew Burnett, director of health improvement and medical director at Barnet Primary Care Trust (PCT) explained to Barnet Council's health overview and scrutiny committee last night that the characteristics of a pandemic were a mild first phase followed a few months later by two or three much more severe and widespread phases.

“What we are seeing now might be the equivalent of that mild first phase,” he said.

The development of the outbreak is said to be consistent with the previous outbreaks in 1918, 1957, and 1968, which killed millions.

And although health officials believe services are more prepared now to cope with information on the disease and treatments, they expect the situation to get worse in terms of confirmed cases, if not deaths.

At the peak of a potential second phase, it is estimated up to 23,000 people a week in the borough would require antivirals, over a two-week period.

Swab tests are being carried out on suspected cases and plans are in place to set up a Barnet flu advice line, along with antiviral collection clinics set up at Finchley Memorial Hospital.

“If there is a second wave there will not be the time resources or need to swab people,” said Dr Burnett.

“We are currently in a phase of trying to contain the virus which in reality means trying to slow its rate while it is understood. Like most natural events it is beyond the power of man to prevent it.

“We will then enter a phase of mitigation where we will be treating people, treating symptoms, to try to reduce the effect of the symptoms rather than slow its growth.

“If the numbers get to the size we are expecting, and at peak we are expecting about 250 people every hour to require antivirals, the facilities at Finchley Memorial Hospital will not be able to cope and we will set up additional antiviral points.”

The news follows the World Health Organisation declaring a global flu pandemic last week, indicating the H1N1 virus was spreading in at least two regions of the world.

Dr Burnett told the committee nine people in the borough had been diagnosed with swine flu since the outbreak first emerged in Mexico, in April.

There is currently one person suffering from the illness, with the other eight people reported to have recovered.

Dr Burnett said: “It is a constantly evolving situation.

“It appears at the moment to be a mild disease but this not going away and the numbers of people being infected is increasing.”

Official reports say there have been more than 36,000 cases globally and about 163 deaths, with rising cases being recorded in the UK, Australia, Japan and Chile on a daily basis.

Stockpiles of antivirals have already been built up by Barnet PCT, and although there is currently no vaccine for the strain, plans for mass immunisation are being drawn up for when it is produced in about six months' time.

Dr Burnett said: “That will be used on a priority basis rather than a first come, first serve, basis.”

Daily updates on the swine flu outbreak can be found at the HPA website www.hpa.org.uk